My 2025 Predictions Report Card
Top Student or Academic Probation?
Last year I published my Ecom Logistics Predictions for 2025 on January 3 2025. Let’s see how I did.
1. TikTok US is divested: RIGHT!
Ok, so maybe it happened in January of 2026, but I’m going to take credit for my prediction which came true when TikTok’s US operations was sold to a consortium of investors which included tech giant Oracle, and other investors Silver Lake, and MGX.
2. Section 321 $800 De Minimis gets the axe: RIGHT!
What started out decades ago as a provision to avoid spending more money to collect duties than the US received ultimately led to overseas companies, namely Chinese cross border sellers like Shein and Temu importing as much as 4M shipments daily with no duties or taxes collected. The De Minimis was closed on August 29, 2025.
3. Temus kills a logistics company: WRONG!
I thought that at least 1 well known logistic company would go down citing that Temu’s payment terms did them in, and while several did go under this year, none of them cited Temu or payment term as the primary reason.
4. Gig delivery in vogue: RIGHT!
Last year gig delivery was just beginning to get popular with UniUni getting into the marketing and Amazon Shipping stepping up it’s marketing, but 2025 saw it go into full swing as we say more entrants like GoFo, SwiftX, SpeedX, ShipX, Sway, and more. With the Quick Commerce Wars coming to the US, we are now seeing food delivery players like Door Dash and Uber Eats competing as well. I’ll take credit for this one.
5. GLS is spun out of IDS: WRONG!
Didn’t happen. Will it happen one day? Maybe.
6. SHEIN officially becomes the largest apparel retailer in the world: RIGHT!
The numbers aren’t in, but it’s pretty certain that Shein, with nearly $60B in sales in 2025 became the largest apparel retailer in the world, surpassing Zara Inditex which possibly did over $40B in 2025.
7. US Ports Strike Again: WRONG!
What a difference a ton of tariffs make. With all the strikes in 2024, I thought it would continue into 2025, but we have seeminly figured it out. That’s great next.
8. DSV acquires Freightos or Flexport: WRONG!
Nope it didn’t happen. Both Freightos and Flexport remain independent and DSV remains without hope for a non-M&A driven future.
9. AI is everywhere: RIGHT!
10. India becomes the new China: WRONG!
C’mon India you’re better than this. When are we seeing the Temu or Shein or India hit the world stage?
Final Score 6/10
