Ecom Logistics Predictions for 2025
Are you ready for it?
It’s my job to predict what’s going to happen in global eCommerce logistics so that companies can be ready and prepared for those changes. Here’s what tops my list for 2025:
1. TikTok US is divested
After going through hell and back due to uncertainty—maybe brief periods of removal from the Android and iOS stores, and perhaps even some bans—TikTok US is eventually divested and acquired by a US-based public tech company. There are many more qualified people to guess who that buyer will be, but my simplified guess is that it will not be Meta or Google due to their existing market share in social media, which doesn’t leave too many other options. Microsoft comes to mind due to its previous public interest in acquiring TikTok, its lack of any successful social media business, and its size and scale, which make it capable of owning and operating multiple unrelated large businesses.
2. Section 321 $800 De Minimis gets the axe
With nearly unanimous support across the political spectrum, Section 321’s $800 duty-free de minimis, which was constantly in the news and often equated with Shein and Temu, is ultimately closed off and overhauled. It’s replaced with a system similar to the EU iOSS or Australia’s model, requiring full registration and payment on every parcel entering the US.
3. Temu kills a logistics company
Known within the industry for its lengthy payment terms, payment delays, and large penalties on logistics providers, Temu’s aggressive policies are going to result in at least one major household parcel delivery company getting burned. This will force that company to seek emergency funding or go bankrupt—sparking further political scrutiny on whether Temu is helping or harming domestic businesses.
4. Gig delivery in vogue
With Amazon Shipping starting to claim a large market share in last-mile parcel delivery, and startups like UniUni raising more and more funding, the media is going to fixate on gig delivery as a major talking point. Incumbent parcel carriers will begin to copy this model or quietly implement elements of it into their own business strategies.
5. GLS is spun out of IDS
IDS has been acquired, including Royal Mail and GLS. Whether through an IPO or a trade sale, GLS is extremely valuable and could be spun out to unlock a huge premium. It just makes sense.
6. SHEIN officially becomes the largest apparel retailer in the world
With over $60B in direct retail revenue in 2025, SHEIN will hit the inflection point everyone in eCommerce has been waiting for to prove that offline is no longer where the majority of business happens. It’s now online, thanks to SHEIN. Note that I’m making a distinction between what’s a pure retailer versus a marketplace. If we included marketplace GMV, we’d have to count Amazon, Taobao, and JD, but the majority of SHEIN’s sales come from being a direct retailer.
7. US Ports Strike Again
A reminder here that the US West Coast port strike was just a pause, and the next deadline is mid-January. Not only that, but with major logistics strikes becoming more frequent—such as UPS, West Coast Ports, East Coast and Gulf Ports, Canada Post, etc.—I suspect management teams will be more willing to prolong strikes. They know two key things: (1) Customers won’t easily switch their shipments to another port, and (2) governments have fewer ways to force operators to pay more, but more ways to make unions return to work or assist operators in implementing processes and automation to reduce reliance on human labor.
8. DSV acquires Freightos or Flexport
DSV has been on an indefinite acquisition binge, and its management seems to be running strategy like a private equity firm. After acquiring DB Schenker in 2024, there aren’t many forwarders of that size left to acquire without facing antitrust concerns. The scene is set for DSV to finally acquire a major digital freight forwarding platform to deploy across its vast freight forwarding empire and keep it out of competitors’ hands. The platform that makes the most sense is Freightos. Flexport might also be a target, but it’s far less attractive because so much of Flexport’s operations, costs, and perceived value lies in being a freight forwarder—something DSV is already better at doing.
9. AI is everywhere
Global headcounts in eCommerce logistics are frozen in 2025 as AI and robotics begin to take over. From storage, picking, packing, and sorting operations to autonomous delivery and desk-office work, AI projects will ultimately lead to no headcount increases for the industry as a whole.
10. India becomes the new China
Indian commerce companies, inspired by the success of Chinese companies and seeing their own manufacturing clusters develop, will begin to have global ambitions. Western brands and retailers—especially those in the mid-market and enterprise small segment who failed to break into China—will try hard to ensure they aren’t shut out of this massive domestic market as well.