In most traditional industries, technology is something you buy from a vendor.

However, the next generation of market share leaders in the supply chain are not logistics companies that buy and implement technology; they are technology companies that utilize technical talent, big data, and AI to deploy software and hardware that help them out-operate traditional supply chain logistics operators.

Let’s look at a few examples from adjacent industries, starting with ride-hailing. Taxi companies have long been well-established and entrenched. But they were no match for the Ubers and Grabs of the world that hired world-class technical talent in software, product, and design to develop software that completely changed the customer experience.

A slew of startups offering ride-hailing software to incumbent taxi companies popped up immediately to save them, but even they could not change the fact that traditional taxi companies did not live and breathe innovation and disruption. It was not in their DNA.

As a second example, let’s look at another adjacent industry: grocery retail. While the incumbents still remain exceptionally strong, challengers like Amazon in the US, Blinkit in India, and Grab in Southeast Asia, have already become impossible to overlook.

These technology companies have reimagined the entire grocery retail experience with direct-to-consumer apps, marketing and merchandising rooted in data, and the creation of a parallel supply chain centered around large distributed clusters of small micro-fulfillment centers and dark stores—and a delivery fleet larger than all of the employees of the traditional supply chain industry combined.

Often if you look at the amount of technology and R&D spend of a company you’ll see that tech-native companies tend to spend around 10-15% of their revenue on tech and R&D and the result is also higher compounded annual growth.

Traditional supply chain logistics has been harder to disrupt primarily because regulation provides a very strong moat, but the unfortunate by-product is that regulation rewards firms that focus on keeping competitors out while extracting the maximum value from customers, instead of innovating for the benefit of the customer.

There are signs that competent challengers are already arising in supply chain logistics, but rather than highlight them, let’s talk about what traditional supply chain and logistics companies can do about it.

First, the culture needs to change, starting at the top. Management teams need to become highly technical, out-of-the-box problem-solvers. Next, R&D, engineering, and product teams should lead the business and operations, not the commercial teams.

Yes, this is very difficult, I know. What’s even more difficult is being a taxi company executive trying to compete with Uber.

This article first appeared in CargoNOW magazine

Jan 2026 | Redo (Returns) acquires Malomo (Tracking)
Jan 2026 | Route (Tracking) acquires Frate (Returns)
Mar 2026 | Loop (Returns) acquires Wonderment (Tracking)
Apr 2026 | ZigZag Global (Returns) acquires Shipup (Tracking)

Why is this happening? Is merging tracking with returns just the latest fad? Or are the two destined for matrimony? To understand this, let’s go back to where it all started.

2021: The Gold Rush for Returns

Returns Management Solutions (RMS) first catapulted into the spotlight during the Covid ecommerce boom. Investors bet big that the boon in ecommerce coming from shoppers-stuck-at-home would result in a corresponding surge of returns as well. Combine that with frothy valuations and 2021 officially became the Gold Rush for Returns.

2021 Returns Acquisitions
Mar 2021 | ZigZag acquired by BlueGlobal
Mar 2021 | eShopWorld acquired by Asendia
Sep 2021 | Happy Returns ($35M raised) acquired by UPS
Apr 2021 | Returnly ($50M raised) acquired by Affirm for $300M
May 2021 | Rebound acquired by Reconomy

2021 Returns Fundraising
Apr 2021 | AfterShip $66M Series B
Jul 2021 | Loop $65M Series B
Dec 2021 | Optoro $25M strategic led by Zebra

One at the time, the remaining companies were spoken for as well:

Nov 2023 | Doddle acquired by Blue Yonder
Aug 2023 | Optoro acquired by Blue Yonder
Jan 2025 | Inmar Returns acquired by DHL Supply Chain
Jul 2025 | ReturnGo acquired by Global-e

Post Purchase: The Ugly Duckling

Early investors, founders, and management teams likely believed that the returns industry was forecasted to grow so big - $850 billion in 2025 according to NRF - that multiple pure play returns companies could become unicorns.

While pure play returns companies received press and funding, a slew of other post-purchase companies were also quietly building by the sidelines. Post-purchase simply refers to anything after-the-purchase and can cover a large number of things, including shipping labels, tracking & shipment notifications, claims & insurance, and returns & warranty.

Some companies in the post-purchase space such as AfterShip, Narvar, Parcel Perform, Parcel Labs, and NShift, approached the problem-solution holistically, viewing each individual function of post-purchase as integrated components of a total solution.

This laid the foundation of infographics and marketing collateral from these companies for years to come: Pure Play vs Full Suite.

If a retailer would looking for a returns management solution, for example, they would likely be funnelled into a decision tree of either selecting a pure play returns solution like Loop, or going with a full suite post-purchase solution like Narvar.

Pure Play vs Full Suite

Some challenges a pure play returns or pure-play-anything might face include:

• Merchants suffer from app fatigue (aka app sprawl) and don’t want to have 20 apps installed to manage their ecommerce business - this speaks to operations, training, integration, analytics, procurement and direct cost of multiple apps

• Returns are preceded by shipping and tracking, meaning that without shipping or tracking in place, pure play returns companies are entrenching other post-purchase solution providers into the merchant’s ecom stack. These other solution providers can then cross-sell their competition returns-management-system (RMS) to the merchant, before the pure returns player even has a chance to pitch.

• Pricing flexibility. As mentioned early, the direct cost of splitting up post purchase into multiple apps can be costly. Having multiple products under a single suite allows post purchase to have more flexibility to customize their pricing to fit the situation. Just the options of blending or bundling makes a dramatic difference

Conversely, pure returns players can have great advantages as well:

• Best in class product

• 100% dedication of company focus to a single product

• Clearer and simpler product marketing, messaging, and positioning

So which strategy is correct?

There Can Be Only One

SAAS is a business where eventually the big eat the small. Bigger typically means more resources. More engineers, more product managers, more support, more marketing, more sales. Finding a nice solid niche to enter a market, and then successfully executing takes hard work, skill, and luck.

However, in the SAAS game where KPIs like Average Contract Values (ACVs), Average Revenue Per User (ARPUs), and Revenue Per Employee (RPE) need to constantly climb, players will eventually get to a point where the next logical expansion is to cover another area of the post-purchase space.

Therefore while the advantages of being a pure-player in post-purchase can be compelling initially, the recent groundswell of returns + tracking mergers seems to indicate that the market is maturing. The initial land grab from the Gold Rush is slowing, and players are now moving towards post-purchase as a single unified solution.

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Stord, founded in 2015 by Sean Henry and Jacob Boudreau, has raised $527 million and is today one of the fastest growing ecommerce fulfillment companies in the world, valued at $1.5 billion. It has also made 8 acquisitions in the past 6 years.

Customer wise, it generally targets small to medium sized DTC ecommerce businesses, although it also services a number of enterprise level clients.

What is particularly notable about Stord isn’t it’s revenue, size, or footprint, but it’s positioning and strategy.

While Stord appears to be a 3PL (ie fulfillment) company, it’s positioned itself as a technology company to investors - a business that is at it’s essence a software cum hardware technology company which uses it’s technology to run, operate, and orchestrate various ecommerce fulfillment services.

As such, it’s been able to raise venture capital at generous valuations, giving it access to cheap and abundant capital, which it has in turn deployed heavily towards acquisitions.

It’s frequency 1 or more acquisitions per year imply that acquisitions are a core part of it’s growth and fundraising story.

Stord’s Acquisition History

1. June 2020 - Cove Logistics

   Freight broker based in Springfield Missouri adding brokerage capabilities to it’s warehousing marketplace. Deal valued at sub $10M. Initial Covid shock.

2. September 2021 - Fulfilment Works

   This traditional warehousing and fulfillment provider marked Stord’s entry into direct ownership and operation of physical logistics. With the world in lock-down, Ecommerce was booming worldwide.

3. April 2024 - ProPack Logistics

   Cold-chain specialist servicing nutrition, supplement, health and beauty verticals. During the same time, Lineage, another cold chain logistics company, IPO’s at a $19 billion valuation, thrusting cold chain into the spotlight.

4. July 2024 - Pitney Bowes Ecommerce Fulfillment

   Opportunistic acquisition by Stord. Pitney Bowe’s (PB) Global Ecommerce (GEC) and Ecommerce Fulfilment businesses had been in distress due to USPS termination of the DDP program which was the bedrock of PB’s ecommerce business. PB traditionally serviced mid-market and enterprise brands. Stord acquires PB’s massive 640,000 sq ft facility in Kentucky.

5. May 2025 - Ware2Go (via UPS)

   Acquired from UPS, adding 21 more fulfillment centers and 2.5 million sq ft of warehouse space. Ware2Go was positioned more for the ecommerce SMB/SME market.

6. July 2025 - Penny Black

   A technology company enabling personalised inserts and unboxing experiences for brands and retailers.

7. January 2026 - Shipwire (via CEVA)

   Acquired from CEVA logistics, who acquired it from Ingram Micro, adding 12 more fulfillment centers, including strong international presence, and an in-house technology platform for warehousing and fulfillment that had been continuously improved for more than a decade.

8. February 2026 - Quiet Logistics (via American Eagle Outfitters)

   Another opportunistic acquisition by Stord. Acquired from American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) who had themselves acquired Quiet Logistics with the intention of developing Quiet into a major logistics and supply chain service provider in the apparel industry. AEO’s investment was a failure, leading to the public announcement of Quiet’s winding down, at which point Stord assumed the lease and other assets of the Quiet business.

Stord’s Fundraising History

For a startup of Stord’s size and history, acquiring other companies at this frenzied pace is unusual. In order to understand why it’s doing this, you have to first look at it’s fundraising. To date Stord has raised approximately $527M and was last valued at $1.5 billion.

April 2018 — Seed Round: $2.63M, Valuation: Undisclosed
Investors: Susa Ventures, Dynamo Ventures. Revolution, Engage, Chris Klaus

June 2018 — Angel Round, Amount and Value: Undisclosed
Investor Tom Noonan

March 2019 — Series A: $12.4M, Valuation: Undisclosed
Investors: Kleiner Perkins, Susa Ventures, Revolution, Engage, Dynamo Ventures.

November 2020 — Series B: $31.9M, Valuation: Undisclosed
Investors: Founders Fund, Dynamo Ventures, Kleiner Perkins, Susa Ventures, Good Friends, B Capital

March 2021 — Series C: $65M, Valuation: $1.3B
Investors: Bond Capital, Founders Fund, Susa Ventures, Dynamo Ventures, Salesforce Ventures, Lineage Logistics. Yes the same Lineage mentioned earlier.

September 2021 — Series D: $90M, Valuation: $1.3B (no change)
Investors: Franklin Templeton, Bond Capital, Founders Fund, Kleiner Perkins.

March 2025 — Equity and Debt Round: $325M, Valuation: $1.5B
Debt means loans, which likely take on interest and requirement repayment. This is not uncommon in later stage companies that can service debt from operating cash flows.

Companies positioned as a high growth tech companies can raise money at premium valuations. Hypothetically, a company like Stord, when positioned as a logistics tech platform, might raise new money at 10x revenue.

At the same time, a traditional fulfillment company like Quiet Logistics might only be valued at 1x revenue, or more precisely probably 3x-5x earnings.

This presents an immediate arbitrage opportunity.

Example of Fundraising M&A Arbitrage

1. Startup with $10M in revenue is valued at 10x revenue, or $100M, and raises $25M new money

2. Startup uses $25M to acquire a traditional logistics company with $25M in revenue

3. Startup $10M revenue + Acquired Company $25M = $35M in combined revenue

4. Startup is now valued at 10x revenue, or $350M, an valuation increase of $150M

5. Repeat

The Elephant in the Room

The question future investors will be asking is whether Stord should continue to receive the premium valuations of a tech company, or whether it’s really a logistics company.

Since Stord markets, sells, manages, and operates physical warehouses, it is no longer a pure technology company, but it can still be considered a hybrid.

The track record for well funded logistics hybrids, however, is bad. Hybrids often have strong starts. The playbooks are often similar:

1. Position as a technology company

2. Raise money at premium valuations

3. Use that money to buy growth and market share

A Tale of Three Logistics Hybrids

The problem is that using money to buy growth and marketshare is not sustainable. At some point growth decelerates, and once the allure of being a high growth tech startup vanishes, valuations come crashing down to earth. What previously looked like a tech company ends up looking like a logistics company with great in-house tech and R&D, and that’s not good for valuations.

Flexport - Freight Forwarder
Raised: $2.5B | Peak Valuation $8B in 2022
Today estimated worth about $2B

Convoy - Trucker
Raised: $928M | Peak Valuation $3.8B in 2022
Shut down, dissolved

Deliverr - Fulfillment
Raised: $490M | Peak Valuation $2.1B in 2021
Resold later at a $1.2B loss, and today likely has lost significantly more value

Do Unicorns Exist?

“Leave it to the Chinese. I didn’t think it was possible.”
- Carl Anheuser, from the movie “2012”

If there are any examples of logistics technology hybrids that absolutely dominate, it would be China’s Cainiao and JD Logistics. Both companies unmistakably are in the business of providing and operating ecommerce logistics services, but the moment you check under the hood, it becomes abundantly clear that these companies are genuinely technology companies that develop their own software, hardware, and apply AI and data science to orchestrate logistics better than any traditional logistics company could - and they are crushing it globally.

The circumstances for both companies are hard to replicate. Cainiao is part of Alibaba Group, China’s largest ecommerce. JD Logistics spun out of JD.com, China’s 2nd largest ecommerce retailer with $182B in revenue (not GMV, which would be significantly higher). In other words, both are spin outs of tech giants with huge resources and talent pools, and also cut their teeth in the largest and most competitive ecommerce market in the world.

Where are we going?

With 8 acquisitions, $325M in fresh capital, and a $1.5B valuation, Stord may seem unstoppable to an undiscerning eye. The strategy is working for now, but growth through acquisitions rooted in valuation arbitrage and dependent on further fundraising is risky.

Every acquisition adds revenue but also adds operational complexity, integration risk, and makes it look less like the pure tech play that justifies its valuation premium. At some point, investors may just see a logistics company with in-house tech and price it accordingly.

Whether Stord can or even wants to go the true orchestration route like Cainiao side is not clear, but if it wants to sustain it’s momentum, it needs to show investors growth, and in an industry where the sales cycle can be 2 years, it might not have many options but to continue down it’s acquisitions path.

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FedEx has been unstoppable lately.

• €9.2B consortium acquisition of InPost which I called FedEx’s most important acquisition since TNT

• Revival of Amazon as a customer, including Amazon Returns to be processed at FedEx Office

• Big bet on technology including FedEx’s new Returns solutions in partnership with Parcel Lab

• Analyst beating earnings announcements

All of these have sent FedEx’s stock soaring 75% in the past 12 months, allowing it to surpass UPS in market cap.

And now, FedEx has officially entered the Quick Commerce Wars with the launch of FedEx Same Day Local, an on-demand delivery service offering 2-hour delivery.

And the way it’s doing this is pretty smart. Rather that try to compete in a business that relies on both a completely different business model and alternative supply chain that FedEx doesn’t have, it has instead partnered with One Rail, a delivery orchestration startup that raised a $42M Series C round late in 2024.

How Does It Work

FedEx’s partnership appears to be a white-label or co-operated service where FedEx will utilize One Rail’s platform, which is already connected to over 1,000 other carrier companies, in order to offer instant Quick Commerce delivery.

The service is described as offering a 2-hour or end-of-day delivery. These deliveries are likely to be handled entirely through One Rail’s digital and physical infrastructure, which is likely utilizes a large number of carriers outside of FedEx’s network including numerous gig delivery platforms.

However, it’s probably going to be a fully FedEx acquired shipment and FedEx branded experience.

Quick Commerce Works Differently

Quick Commerce follows a completely different playbook from traditional ecommerce delivery.

1️⃣ Delivery-Drivers at Scale

It’s one thing to manage 10K delivery drivers in-house, it’s another to be China’s Meituan managing 7.5M delivery drivers. It’s a completely different thing, and FedEx wouldn’t be able to do this with it’s existing network.

2️⃣ Dark stores, or micro fulfillment centers

Quick Commerce in other markets, is primarily delivery groceries, daily necessities, or high frequency items like popular consumer electronics. It’s still not clear how FedEx plans to acquire this piece, or if it hopes to build this business together with major retailers.

3️⃣ Digitally native

From owning the customer acquisition, to operating the millions of drivers, and planning perfect inventory numbers across a large number of micro fulfillment centers, successful Quick Commerce businesses have to be great in tech, AI, and big data.

A Different Breed of Competitors

This is a great first step for FedEx to ensure that it’s not completely left out of the Quick Commerce game which is set to be dominated by DoorDash, Uber, Instacart, and a flew of other players with DNA in the instant delivery space

These companies are genuinely technology companies, more like Amazon than they are like UPS or USPS, and FedEx will have it’s work cut out for them in entering this space. However, it’s a segment of the market that’s too hard to ignore. Expect more partnerships soon.

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The entire country of India cannot stop celebrating India Post’s new 24-hour and 48-hour Speed Post which was launched on 17 March 2026, and available in the 6 metro cities of New Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, and Hyderabad.

Announcements on LinkedIn are ripe with analysts harping that India Post has entered the Quick Commerce turf wars dominated by Zepto and Blinkit.

Coincidentally FedEx announced FedEx Same Day Local a 2-hour delivery service in the US around the same time, further causing professionals to lump India Posts’ announcement into the Quick Commerce service category.

Indeed the fact that a postal operator in an expansive country of nearly 1.5 billion can offer a time definite service is impressive, however, the initial launch is limited to only shipments between 6 major cities.

When that it taken into account, it’s a next day service, and here’s what other existing major traditional logistics players are already offering:

XpressBees - Same-day and next-day delivery

Delhivery - Same-day pickup with next-day delivery

BlueDart - Next day delivery

Furthermore, these delivery speeds simply cannot compare to true Quick Commerce immediate delivery companies such as Zepto, Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart and others that will all deliver orders under 30 minutes.

While India Post deserves recognition for it’s progress, let’s not forget just how ultra competitive the Indian ecommerce logistics market is.

If there’s one tracking system design mistake that carriers regularly make, it’s only allowing their direct customer, the shipper, to track shipments.

Put yourself in the shoes of an ecommerce shipper. What are the uses for this tracking number?

This is not freight forwarding where you are micromanaging the delivery of a container carrying $500K of cargo. You ship thousands of orders, and you don’t track a single one.

As an ecommerce shipper . . .

• You are required to provide proof of shipping to marketplaces in order to maintain good standing or ratings, and maybe even for release of funds

• Your merchant processor (ie - payment provider) may require proof of shipping to ensure that you fulfilled and delivered the order - that’s how they manage merchant risk

• You fraud-prevention provider may be need to analyse shipping and delivery patterns in order to prevent losses from fraudulent orders

• Your customer might be utilizing a Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) service which requires the tracking as proof of purchase and receipt of item before financing can occur

• If an order is lost, your insurance and claims management software and providers will need tracking statuses and maybe proof of delivery to file the claim

• Your returns management software needs to know the tracking status of returns coming back into your posession

• You utilize 3rd party shipment notification software which requires tracking statuses from the carrier to send the shipment notifications

• Your customer service ticking system needs to obtain tracking statuses when dealing with customer inquires about their order

• Your supply chain and delivery ecosystem partners (customer brokers, middle mile, aggregators, warehouses) need visibility on where shipments and packages are

Many carriers incorrectly assume that the shipper can easily pass their shipment tracking to these partners. That is completely wrong. Here are the problems that the carriers’ customer, the shipper, faces:

• Most shippers utilize far too many services, from multiple providers, that expecting them to somehow manually connect or integrate the carrier’s system with 20 different service providers, systems, and ecosystem partners is not feasible - when you are shipping thousands of orders on a daily basis and you need streamlined scalable solutions

• Most of the systems from service providers and ecosystem partners simply do not have any way for the user to either manually send tracking numbers into the system because it’s not scalable, nor do they provide any UX or support for thousands of seller to connect their carrier account - try telling the world’s biggest marketplaces that they need to accommodate for carrier X, Y, or Z’s tracking policy and see what they say

• The shipper may not have direct access to the number of service providers and ecosystem partners involved that need the tracking - think about a cross border parcel shipment - while they may contract with an originating logistics services provider, all the ecosystem partners in between need the tracking too

Data Privacy - Resolved Long Ago

Some carriers believe that they cannot provide tracking data to a non-shipper due to data privacy regulation. This is incorrect. In fact, the majority of parcels shipped in the world are trackable by non-shippers already and the industry has already dealt with this. GDPR has long indicated that it’s ok to provide tracking data to 3rd parties so long as it is compliant with GDPR framework. For more information, read Why Carrier’s Need DPAs for Tracking.

Brutal Reality

What do the largest carriers in the world including USPS, FedEx, UPS, DHL, Amazon Shipping, etc all have in common? They allow authorized 3rd parties to track shipments in a fully data-compliant and ecosystem friendly manner.

For that reason, the systems designs of various marketplaces, service providers and ecosystems players don’t need to allow for sellers-shippers to manually connect to or integrate carrier tracking.

The most important carriers in the world with the highest volumes are already connected, therefore adding smaller carriers doesn’t have the same financial incentive.

If a carrier is non-trackable, the shipper is simply better off choosing a carrier like the ones mentioned earlier that do integrate to the wider ecosystem.

What Can Carriers Do

Carriers can ensure that their tracking system design supports authorized 3rd party tracking intermediaries that can connect their tracking to a large number of wider ecosystem players.

For the Best Practices on developing real time tracking webhooks, check out Best Practices: Webhook Design for Carrier Tracking.

Returning for the second year at Suntec City in Singapore, Deliver Asia felt considerably larger than the first year.

Venue: Suntec City

Suntec City is located in the heart of Singapore’s Central Business District (CBD) with excellent public and private transportation access, and access to restaurants and shopping to one of the largest malls in the city state.

Upon arriving at the venue, you’re greeted with impressive signage to let you know exactly where you are.

Several helpful staff are positioned all around the venue to guide you towards the entrance, and an efficient DIY sign in station prints your badge with the scan of your QR code and you’re in!

Networking and Business

DELIVER Asia hosted 31 sponsors-exhibitors and 315 attendees this year with over 900 meetings taking place. While the focus was Asia business, attendees came from all over the world.

Attendees were in for a particular treat this year as the conference significantly stepped up the cuisine during Night 1 of the conference along with drinks and entertainment.

Another networking benefit of DELIVER is the accommodations. Attendees and exhibitors are in the same hotel which means for the 2-3 days that you’re there you are constantly running into people that you meet from the conference, resulting in constant opportunities to chat with like minded people.

Next Year: Sentosa

2027’s event will be back in Singapore on 3+4 March, but at the Sentosa Resort which is an entire island-resort style area of Singapore. It will be exciting to see what the DELIVER team comes up with for the new venue.

In the meantime, the next DELIVER is their flagship event, DELIVER Europe on 3+4 June in Amsterdam. Expect 140+ sponsors-exhibitors and 1,000+ senior retailers. If you’d like to attend please register using the Link Below. Approved retailers are hosted (ie - free), while logistics service providers and other vendors-to-retailers will need to sponsor or pay in some form.

Register for Deliver Europe

Three years ago, I stood on a stage at the GS1 Summit in Hong Kong and told a room full of senior logistics professionals that AI was coming for their jobs. The response: a sea of deer-in-the-headlights stares. The silence was uncomfortable. You could feel the collective thought in the room: “Another tech guy who doesn’t get that our business can’t be automated.” The moderator quickly moved on. I was never invited back.

Fast forward to today: Cold hard numbers dance around our screens informing us of large layoff announcements. Economists note continued reductions of professional white-collar job postings. At the same time, logistics companies post record earnings.

Don’t take my word for it. Just look at the receipts from the last 18 months.

The message is undeniable: companies are making more money while adjusting their workforce. Amazon’s corporate workforce—the knowledge workers, the managers, the strategists—has been systematically reduced while the company’s revenue grew by over 50% since its headcount peak. The warehouse workers largely kept their jobs. The office workers did not.

This culling is happening because the very fabric of the logistics profession is being disassembled. The job of a freight forwarder, once a complex dance of phone calls, emails, and spreadsheets, paired with knowledge, experience, and wit, is now being broken apart into tasks that software can now perform flawlessly.

Rate and quote desks are being replaced by digital workers that turn a 45-minute hunt into a 4-second query. Documentation and customs clerks are watching as AI auto-fills bills of lading and validates customs entries. Customer service agents are being bypassed by CS bots that are always online, answer immediately, and never get angry.

Managers: you’re next. For years, innovation teams in logistics have been obsessed with the ‘digital twin’—building digital replicas of warehouses, container fleets, and entire supply chains to simulate, test, and optimize the flow of physical goods. But while we were all preoccupied with modeling our assets, our companies have inadvertently been laying the foundation of creating a digital twin of something far more valuable and far more vulnerable: YOU.

Every email you write, every document you create, every strategy presentation you formulate is corporate property. This digital mental footprint is now the training data for your own replacement. Your experience, your knowledge, your very thought process—codified and owned by the company—can soon be used to build an AI that can do your job without your salary.

This is not a hypothetical. In October 2025, Business Insider reported that the cloud platform Vercel trained an AI agent on its top-performing salesperson, shadowed them for weeks, and then built an AI to replicate their entire workflow. The result? A 10-person sales team was transformed; one person now supervises the AI, while the other nine were reassigned to higher-value outbound prospecting roles. As industry analyst Josh Bersin notes, when a senior employee leaves, their “digital twin”—their knowledge and persona—remains as a company asset. Even the C-Suite is not immune; a New York Times report suggested 80% of a CEO’s work can be automated.

The consequence of this automation is a flood of talent into a shrinking job market. In 2025, the recruiting firm SCM Talent Group reported a 128% spike in resume submissions for supply chain roles. The market is saturated with experienced professionals at the exact moment the number of senior roles is collapsing.

For the thousands of seasoned logistics professionals now finding their roles redundant, there is a silver lining. At least we have enough logistics experience that we will probably make great food delivery carriers.

The United States Postal Service (USPS) is facing an existential crisis. With a $9B loss in 2025, and with traditional mail volumes in a state of irreversible decline, the post finds itself at a critical juncture.

In a March 2026 testimony before Congress, Postmaster General David Steiner laid out the gravity of the situation, warning that the USPS could run out of cash within 12 months.

His requests included (1) raising the agency’s debt ceiling, (2) increasing its pricing authority and (3) legislative “flexibility” regarding the Universal Service Obligation (USO) — the legal mandate that dictates that USPS provides accessible letter mail service to all residents, which is specifically codified to include a requirement for 6 days a week mail delivery.

The USO predicament is not unique to the United States.

Postal services around the world have been grappling with the same letter mail apocalypse for over a decade now. As email, social media, and electronic billing have replaced the physical letter, these legacy institutions have been forced to adapt or face insolvency.

To understand the potential paths forward for the USPS, let’s take a constructive look into what other nations have already done. Their experiences might offer a valuable blueprint and learning for what might be possible.

The Global Response to a Universal Challenge

Faced with similar pressures, postal operators worldwide pursued a wide range of strategies to align their costs with the new reality of declining letter mail volumes, moving beyond simple price increases to fundamentally restructure their operations and legal mandates.

Denmark (PostNord): Ceased letter delivery entirely (2025); mandatory digital mail (e-Boks);

Canada (Canada Post): Ending door-to-door delivery in favor of community mailboxes; reducing delivery frequency to 2-3 days/week for non-urgent mail.

United Kingdom (Royal Mail): Privatized in 2013; moved to 5-day/week delivery for 2nd Class mail; lobbying for further USO relaxation.

Norway (Posten Norge): Implemented alternate-day delivery; slowed service standards; workforce reduction of 33% since 2015.

Sweden (PostNord): Proactively implemented alternate-day delivery in many areas; seeking further regulatory relief.

Australia (Australia Post): Reduced regular letter delivery to every-other-day; extended delivery timeframes for all letters.

New Zealand (New Zealand Post): Reduced delivery to 2 days/week (urban) and 3 days/week (rural); reducing the number of required postal outlets.

Germany (Deutsche Post): Legislated slower delivery standards (95% of letters within 3 days, up from 2); scrapped next-day requirement.

Japan (Japan Post): Ended Saturday delivery; extended delivery times by one day; launched a “digital address” system.

Switzerland (Swiss Post): Integrating a digital letter into the statutory USO; harmonizing punctuality standards for letters and parcels.

France (La Poste): Maintains 6-day delivery but receives direct government compensation for the net cost of the USO.

Three Models of Postal Transformation

The various national strategies appear to fall into 1 of 3 approaches:

1. The Radical Pivot: The Danish Model

Denmark represents the most dramatic response to the letter mail apocalypse. After a 90% collapse in letter volume since 2000, PostNord, with the backing of the Danish government, made the decision to cease letter delivery entirely by the end of 2025.

The country has transitioned to a mandatory digital mail system via e-Boks, through which citizens are legally required to receive official communications from the government.

This decisive move effectively eliminated the economic justification for a national letter delivery network, allowing PostNord to pivot its entire infrastructure and focus exclusively on the growing and competitive parcel market.

2. Pragmatic Reductions: The Alternate-Day Approach

A more common strategy, adopted by countries like Norway, Sweden, Australia, and New Zealand, has been to reduce the frequency of delivery rather than eliminate it.

Norway moved to alternate-day delivery in 2016, a move that, combined with other reforms, cut operating costs in its mail division by approximately 35%.

Similarly, Australia Post is in the process of rolling out every-other-day delivery for regular letters nationwide, a reform projected to deliver a significant improvement to its financial position after a $200.3 million loss in FY2023.

This model preserves the concept of a universally accessible mail service but adjusts the service level to match modern demand and fiscal constraints.

3. Structural and Legislative Adjustments

Other nations have focused on changing the underlying rules of the game.

Canada Post is systematically ending door-to-door delivery for its remaining customers, transitioning them to more cost-effective community mailboxes—a move expected to generate nearly $400 million in annual savings.

In Germany, the government modernized its Postal Act by scrapping the next-day delivery requirement and formally legislating a slower, 3-day standard for the vast majority of letters, giving Deutsche Post crucial operational flexibility and cost savings.

The United Kingdom took the path of privatization with Royal Mail, which has since moved to five-day delivery for second-class mail and continues to lobby its regulator, Ofcom, for further relaxation of its USO.

In France, the government has taken a different approach, maintaining a six-day delivery mandate but providing La Poste with direct state compensation for the net cost of fulfilling this public service obligation.

The Unspoken Choice Before the United States

The debate sparked by Postmaster General Steiner’s testimony is not merely about accounting or borrowing limits; it is about defining the purpose and structure of a national postal service in the 21st century.

The path forward for the USPS can be seen through the lens of the global models:

Maintain the Status Quo: This involves continuing to fund the current 6-day delivery model through increased borrowing and higher stamp prices. As international examples suggest, this approach may provide temporary relief but fails to address the fundamental structural decline and is likely to lead to recurring financial crises.

Incremental Modernization: This path would involve Congress amending the Postal Service Reform Act of 2022 to allow for a reduction in delivery frequency, similar to the models in Australia or Norway. This would represent a significant cost-saving measure while preserving a nationwide mail delivery network.

Radical Reinvention: A more long-term and disruptive path might involve a deliberate, multi-year strategy to transition away from physical letters as the primary means of communication, embracing digital identity services, and reorienting the USPS infrastructure around the competitive parcel market, mirroring the strategic direction of Denmark and others. Whether this is right for the US or not is another discussion, but we can at least study and learn from other countries.

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You know them as the Big 3: DHL, UPS, and FedEx. The kings of ecommerce logistics. Each nearing $100B in annual revenues, but all facing similar challenges. One of the clearest visions all three have given to the market is massive venture and investment into health care logistics.

Healthcare logistics, which includes pharmaceutical has long been a high margin specialized niche, but the Covid-19 pandemic thrust it into the spotlight.

The strategy makes perfect sense for many reasons:

1. Boomers, the largest generation, are nearing retirement

2. Advances in science and medicine are expected to prolong lifespans, with big bets on nanotech, cybernetics, and genetics poised to deliver potential breakthroughs

3. Boomers’ are the wealthiest generation with big expectations for healthcare spending

Good healthcare logistics is highly global in nature, requires control of infrastructure from airplanes to storage to distribution, mastery of compliance, and is increasingly taking a B2C shipment-to-consignee approach. The Big 3 were built for this kind of thing.

Build vs Buy

The most interesting difference is strategy is UPS and DHL’s “buy” vs FedEx’s “build” strategy. UPS has made 3 large acquisitions in 2025 alone while FedEx has not announced any acquisitions, but has publicly shared revenue milestones including $400 million in new annualized revenue in 2025, and $500 million in wins in 2024.

FedEx Highlights

• First global integrator to achieve CEIV Pharma certification for ground handling across air hubs and ramps

• 130+ cold chain facilities worldwide

UPS Healthcare Acquisitions

1. Andlauer Healthcare Group (AHG)

• Amount: $1.6 billion USD (CAD $2.2B)

• Announced: April 24, 2025

• Completed: November 3, 2025

• Target: Leading North American supply chain management company specializing in cold chain transportation for healthcare

• Significance: Expands UPS Healthcare’s cold chain and pharma capabilities across North America

2. Frigo-Trans & BPL

• Amount: Not disclosed

• Completed: January 8, 2025

• Target: German/European healthcare cold-chain logistics providers

• Significance: Expands global pharma cold-chain storage and transport network in Europe

3. Bomi Group

• Amount: Not disclosed

• Date: Recent (not specified)

• Target: Multi-national healthcare logistics firm serving Europe and Latin America

4. Marken

• Amount: Not disclosed

• Announced: November 7, 2016

• Completed: December 2016

• Target: Global provider of supply chain solutions to life sciences industry, leader in clinical trials

• Significance: Major entry into clinical trials logistics; Marken continues making sub-acquisitions

DHL Healthcare Acquisitions & Investment

1. SDS Rx

• Amount: Not disclosed

• Announced: September 9, 2025

• Completed: November 7, 2025

• Target: Provider of final-mile delivery and specialized healthcare transportation for long-term care/specialty pharmacies, radiopharmacies, health system networks (200+ US locations)

• Significance: Adds final-mile healthcare delivery capabilities; second healthcare acquisition for DHL in 2025

2. CRYOPDP

• Amount: Not disclosed

• Date: March 31, 2025 (announced and completed)

• Acquired from: Cryoport

• Target: Leading specialty courier focused on clinical trials, biopharma, cell and gene therapies

• Significance: Strengthens specialized biopharma transport for advanced therapies; first healthcare acquisition for DHL in 2025

Announced Investments

• DHL healthcare has announced €2 billion (~$2.2 billion USD) to be invested over 5 years (2025-2030) to enhance life sciences and healthcare logistics capabilities, expand cold chain capacity, transform Florstadt campus into European pharmaceutical hub, add 20+ cross-dock facilities

Baseline approach: Push all events by shipper account

A common industry pattern is: emit all tracking events for all shipments associated with a given shipper account (e.g., an API key / customer account). This works for a narrow set of use cases, but it’s not sufficient for the broader market.

If shipper-account push is the only model you support, you force downstream consumers to build workarounds (or you block key partner integrations entirely).

Know your real consumers: Who actually needs tracking?

In modern shipping workflows, the shipper is often not the primary consumer of tracking events. The real demand comes from an ecosystem of third parties, including:

• marketplaces and retail channels

• payment providers

• ticketing/support systems

• analytics platforms

• consolidators and 3PLs/fulfillment providers

• customs brokers

• insurance providers

• other operational partners and internal tools

Requiring each shipper to individually integrate your carrier tracking into each partner system creates unnecessary friction and puts your customers at a disadvantage versus carriers that support partner-friendly subscription models.

Recommended: Subscription API for tracking-ID–scoped webhooks

Provide an API that allows authorized parties to subscribe to tracking updates for a specific Tracking ID (or shipment identifier). This enables ecosystem partners to receive events directly, without requiring the shipper to relay data.

Key properties of this model:

• subscriptions are scoped (per Tracking ID / shipment)

• subscriptions are authorized (who can subscribe is enforced)

• events are push-based (webhook delivery)

Subscription responses: Validation and error handling

The subscription endpoint should return explicit, developer-friendly responses that make it unambiguous whether the subscription was created.

At minimum

:

• confirmation that the subscription is active (or pending)

• the scope (e.g., Tracking ID, carrier, account)

• a unique subscription ID

• clear error codes/messages when it fails (and why), such as:

  • invalid Tracking ID

  • unauthorized / insufficient permissions

  • invalid webhook URL or failed verification challenge

  • duplicate subscription

  • rate limit / quota exceeded

Mid-journey subscriptions: Handling historical events

A subscription may be created after a shipment has already started moving. In that case, partners typically need the full event history to establish state (current status, milestone timestamps, exceptions, etc.).

Two common approaches:

Option A (basic): Separate “get history” API

Provide a REST endpoint to fetch historical tracking events. The consumer must:

1. call the history API, then

2. start listening to the webhook, then

3. merge/dedupe events by event ID / timestamp.

Option B (best): Return history on subscription creation

When creating the subscription, return any existing historical events (if available) in the subscription response. This allows the consumer to become consistent immediately without implementing a two-step bootstrap flow.

Data Privacy Compliance

To understand more on how carriers can provide shipment tracking while staying compliant with data privacy frameworks such as GDPR, CCPA, and PDPA, check out this article on Why Carriers Need DPAs for Tracking Data.

Returnless Return

What it means: A return where a refund, exchange, or replacement is provided without the requiring the original product to be sent back.

Why it’s bad: Term itself is a paradox - a self contradiction. It’s like the Orderless Order, Paymentless Payment, Claimless Claim, or the Questionless Question. I

Better Term: Conceptually the buyer intends to return a product and receive a refund in exchange, so how about "Free Refund" or "Free Exchange" which implies that the customer gets the refund anyway without having to provide the returned product?

Global to Global

Context: A number of companies have used the term "Global to Global" to describe different carrier or logistics services.

Why It’s Bad: What does this even mean? Does that mean you can ship from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world? The carrier probably can’t, and that’s why this description is both confusing and bordering absurd. Destinations are usually well covered through the postal network, but who can offer any origin in the world?

Better Term: Just stick with “Global Shipping” — it works.

Fulfilment-As-A-Service (FAAS)

What is means: Ecommerce fulfillment, but by calling it FAAS, it sounds cool because it’s like SAAS. And it makes you think that you only pay for what you use.

SAAS history lesson: In the past, especially pre-cloud, people used to buy software which came in a physical box, and on physical disks which they then installed onto their computers. The purchase was one-off and the user owned the right to use that version of software indefinitely. The internet allowed software developers to license software-as-a-service (SAAS) and users no longer owned a copy of the software.

Why it’s bad: Adding “as-a-service” to something that is already a service is redundant. Fulfilment has always been a service. This would be like calling a barber shop “Hair cut as a service” or calling an garage shop oil change “Oil change as a service” or a dental clinic “Dentistry as a service.”

Cloud Fulfillment

What is means: Fulfillment companies that have a have a web based customer portal.

Why it’s bad: Cloud is supposed to refer applications running on a true cloud infrastructure rather than locally or on-premise. Calling it cloud fulfillment makes it sounds like your goods are being virtually picked, packed, and shipped in the digital world only. And buyers of fulfillment services never had to install software anyway. Calling it cloud fulfilment is weird.

End to End

What is means: Not just a logistics term, but companies from all industries love referring to their product as end-to-end.

What it’s bad: Nobody knows FROM which end and TO which end you’re referring to. Some carriers indicate that they ship parcels “end to end” only for you to discover that your “end” should start at your warehouse, but the carrier’s starting end means you deliver it to their sorting centre in another city. That doesn’t sound like end to end to me at all. Shouldn’t they be picking the product up from your factory in China directly?

What: DELIVER Europe
Where: Taets Art and Event Park in Zaandam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
When: 3-4 June 2026
Price: FREE for Qualified Brands & Retailers

For retail and supply chain leaders across Europe, June 2026 is shaping up to be a defining moment. DELIVER Europe returns to Amsterdam, transforming the industrial-chic Taets Art and Event Park into a high-stakes hub for over 1,000 C- and D-level executives from the world’s most influential brands.

This isn’t just another trade show. It’s a precision-engineered ecosystem designed to cut through the noise of traditional conferences. If you’re tired of aimless networking and crowded expo floors, DELIVER’s hosted model built around pre-qualified, one-to-one matchmaking offers a refreshing change.

The Hosted VIP Experience: What’s Included?

For qualified retail and brand leaders, DELIVER offers a fully hosted experience that removes the friction of event attendance. A VIP Pass isn’t just a ticket; it’s a comprehensive package that includes:

•Precision Matchmaking: Pre-arranged 1-to-1 meetings with solution
providers hand-picked to match your specific business needs and active projects.

•Full Hospitality: Complimentary accommodation and gourmet catering throughout the event.

•Exclusive Access: Entry to all content sessions, the Elite Dinner (invite-only), Women in Retail Breakfast (invite-only) and the legendary networking parties.

•Seamless Logistics: Access to DELIVER-arranged shuttle services and dedicated account management to handle your schedule.

Apply for Your VIP Pass

The 2026 Agenda: Beyond the Buzzwords

This year’s edition promises a full agenda tackling the challenges and opportunities shaping the industry. Attendees can explore themes across:

• Artificial Intelligence – from workforce transformation to risk management.

• Net-Zero and Sustainability – practical strategies for circular and low-carbon supply chains.

• Cross-Chain Collaboration – breaking silos and improving visibility across the supply network.

• Supply Chain Leadership – human-centric, purpose-driven approaches to managing complex operations.

The “Elite” Factor

One of the hallmarks of the DELIVER experience is the Elite Dinner on June 3rd. This invite-only gathering has become a staple for industry pioneers to connect in a more intimate, high-level setting. It’s where the real conversations happen away from the stage and into the future of commerce.

Why It Matters

Whether you are looking to stress-test your current tech stack or find the partners who will help you navigate the next decade of cross-border commerce, DELIVER Europe is where the heavy hitters gather. The hosted experience means the logistics are handled, so you can focus entirely on what matters: outcomes.

Event Floorplan

Space is already limited! Book now to avoid missing out

Book Your Ticket Now

Who’s Showing Up?

The floor is packed with the movers and shakers of the logistics world. Here’s a snapshot of the partners already locked in:

🔘 Premier Sponsors: DP World & Geopost

🔘 The Parcel Carriers: GLS, Emirates, DHL, Maersk, Spring, Asendia, FedEx, EVRI, Landmark Global, Postnord, Swissport

🔘 Software & Tech: Zonos, Manhattan Associates, CIRRO, HIVED, PARCEL.ONE

🔘 Fulfilment & Freight: Maersk, Zencargo

🔘 Ecosystem Partners: Claimit, Taxually, Modern Expo, Nash

The First Speakers

Register for Deliver

What: e-Logi Fest 2026
Where: Karen Demirchyan Sports and Concert Complex | Yerevan, Armenia
When: 5–7 June 2026
Price: FREE for Professional Visitors (Registration Required)

From June 5–7, 2026, logistics and e-commerce leaders will converge at the strategic junction of Europe and Asia. e-Logi Fest returns to Yerevan, transforming the landmark Karen Demirchyan Complex into a high-octane meeting point for the world’s most innovative supply chain thinkers.

More than a trade fair, this is an industry-focused festival designed to bridge the gap between digital retail demands and physical logistics reality.

Why Attend?

For importers, exporters, manufacturers, and retailers, e-Logi Fest provides a frictionless environment to scale operations. Your professional pass grants you exclusive access to:

• International Connectivity: Direct access to freight forwarders, courier services, and postal providers from the EU, EAEU, and beyond.

• The Tech Stack of Tomorrow: Explore live demos of warehouse automation, AI-driven fulfillment, and smart tracking systems.

• Strategic Sourcing: Unlock event-only partnerships, special discounts, and business opportunities unavailable anywhere else.

• Targeted Networking: A curated environment to connect with decision-makers, platform operators, and global manufacturers.

“e-Logi Fest is where the region’s logistics DNA is being rewritten.”

Register for Your Professional Pass

The 2026 Agenda: Intelligence in Motion

This year’s summit tackles the massive shifts redefining global trade corridors:

• Smart Supply Chains: Leveraging real-time data to solve fragmented market challenges.

• Cross-Border Mastery: Navigating the complexities of international shipping and last-mile delivery.

• The AI Shift: Practical applications of AI, from route optimization to predictive inventory.

• Sustainability: Moving toward circular and low-carbon supply chains in emerging markets.

  

Who’s On the Floor?

The floor is packed with industry movers and shakers, including:

• Logistics Giants: DHL eCommerce, FedEx, and regional postal leaders.

• E-com Powerhouses: Wildberries, Yandex Go, and Amazon-ready fulfillment partners.

• Tech Innovators: Intel Corporation, Parcel Perform, and Zonos.

• Ecosystem Partners: Regional trade ministries, customs facilitators, and Fintech providers.

  

  Regiter Now

  
  
  

But this isn’t just another merger. This is the latest, and perhaps most audacious, move in a calculated game being played by one of the most aggressive and successful software investors in the world. Given the size of the deal, I think we should ask ourselves:

Who Are These Guys?

Forget the polished website and the pictures of smiling executives. Thoma Bravo, founded by Orlando Bravo, is a private equity machine that has perfected the art of the software buyout. They manage over $181 billion in assets and have a simple, ruthless, and wildly profitable strategy: find a good software company, buy it, make it more profitable, and sell it for a huge return.

They are not logistics guys. They are software guys. And they see the fragmented, complex world of logistics technology not as a series of operational challenges, but as a massive opportunity for consolidation. As one Forbes writer put it when Thoma Bravo bought Coupa Software, they are the “Barbarians at the Gate” of the supply chain world. And now, they’re not just at the gate — they’re rebuilding Rome.

The Playbook, Step by Step

What Thoma Bravo is doing is a repeatable, five-step playbook they have run over and over again across the software industry. The Auctane/WWEX deal is just the latest chapter.

Step 1: Identify the Platform

It starts with finding a market leader in a fragmented industry. The company needs to be good, but not too good. Maybe it’s inefficient, maybe its growth has stalled, or maybe it’s a public company struggling with quarterly earnings pressure. In 2021, they found their perfect platform: Stamps.com (formerly Nasdaq: STAMPS). For a cool $6.6 billion, they took the company private.

Step 2: Rebrand and Roll-Up

Once private, Stamps.com was rebranded as Auctane. This new entity became the “platform” for a classic “buy and build” strategy. Thoma Bravo used Auctane to go on a shopping spree, rolling up a huge chunk of the e-commerce shipping software market. ShipStation, ShippingEasy, ShipWorks, Metapack, Endicia — all these familiar names now live under the Auctane umbrella. Each acquisition consolidated their market power.

Step 3: Load It With Debt

Here’s where the financial engineering comes in. These deals are rarely paid for with cash on hand. They are leveraged buyouts (LBOs), meaning the acquired company is saddled with the debt used to buy it. For this latest WWEX merger, Thoma Bravo secured over $5 billion in a single unitranche financing deal from a syndicate of 33 lenders — including Blackstone, Ares, Apollo, and Oaktree.

This debt has to be serviced, which puts immense pressure on the newly formed company to cut costs and increase revenue. If that sounds familiar, it should. It’s the exact same playbook that killed Toys “R” Us. In 2005, KKR, Bain Capital, and Vornado bought the company for $6.6 billion, but loaded it with over $5.3 billion in debt. The interest payments alone — hundreds of millions of dollars a year — choked the company, preventing it from investing in its stores or e-commerce, and ultimately drove it into bankruptcy. The debt, not the business, is what wiped it off the face of the earth.

Step 4: The Grand Combination

After consolidating the software side, the playbook calls for a bigger move. By merging the pure-tech Auctane with the asset-heavy 3PL operations of WWEX Group — Worldwide Express, GlobalTranz, Unishippers — Thoma Bravo has created a vertically integrated behemoth. The new entity doesn’t just provide the software to print a label; it can now manage the entire journey from checkout to doorstep.

Step 5: The Exit

Private equity firms are not long-term holders. The end goal is always the exit. In a few years, expect Thoma Bravo to either sell this new, larger, more dominant entity to another company or take it public in a massive IPO. The $12 billion valuation is just the starting point.

The Broader Logistics Tech Takeover

To think this is just about one company is to miss the forest for the trees. Thoma Bravo is strategically buying up the key control points of modern logistics, and the scale of their investment is staggering. Between 2021 and 2026, they have deployed over $20 billion into just three major logistics tech platforms:

•Coupa Software (2023, $8 billion): A leader in business spend management with deep ties into supply chain and procurement.

•project44 (2022, $420 million investment, $2.2 billion valuation): The market leader in supply chain visibility.

•Auctane + WWEX (2026, ~$12 billion combined): The shipping software and freight brokerage combination.

The Elephant in the Room: Are These Companies Actually Tech?

Here’s the conversation that has been happening in boardrooms and at industry conferences for years, and one that this deal makes impossible to ignore any longer.

Auctane’s brands — ShipStation, Stamps.com, Endicia, ShippingEasy — belong to a category commonly called shipping aggregators. They sit between the shipper and the carrier, providing software to compare rates, print labels, and manage shipments. Competitors in this space include Shippo, Easyship, and EasyPost. On the freight side, the same model exists with companies like Flexport, and the now-defunct Convoy.

The fundamental question the industry has never been able to answer cleanly is this: are these businesses technology companies, SaaS companies, operations companies, or some hybrid of all three? And the answer matters enormously, because the category you land in determines your valuation.

Pure SaaS companies — the kind Thoma Bravo typically hunts — can trade at anywhere from 5x to over 20x revenue, depending on their growth. Traditional logistics companies, on the other hand, are lucky to get 1.5x revenue. The gap between those two numbers is enormous, and it’s the gap that has made the logistics tech space such a magnet for venture capital and private equity over the past decade.

The uncomfortable truth, however, is that the market has never — not once, in any sustained way — rewarded shipping aggregators and freight tech companies with genuine SaaS multiples. Not Stamps.com, which was consistently undervalued by public markets despite beating earnings expectations before Thoma Bravo took it private at $6.6 billion.

Not Flexport, which raised at a reported $8 billion valuation in 2022 and has been chasing profitability ever since. And certainly not Convoy, which raised $925 million, peaked at a $3.8 billion valuation in 2022, and was completely gone by October 2023.

Convoy’s story is worth dwelling on for a moment, because it is the clearest case study of what happens when a logistics company is valued like a tech company. The pitch was elegant: use machine learning to digitize freight matching the way Uber digitized rideshare. It worked beautifully during the COVID freight boom. Then spot rates collapsed by 40%+ in 2022 and 2023, and the entire model fell apart.

Convoy had no assets to fall back on, no physical capacity to leverage, and no relationship-based stickiness to retain shippers when the market turned. Flexport stepped in to buy the tech stack for pennies on the dollar. A tech company is not supposed to fall apart when shipping rates drops.

The pattern repeats itself across the industry. These companies start their lives positioned as technology companies, raise venture capital at tech company valuations, and then spend years trying to justify those valuations in a market that ultimately views them as logistics businesses. The boardroom debate about whether they are “tech” or “ops” is not just philosophical — it has real consequences for how these companies are funded, managed, and ultimately valued at exit.

This raises a genuinely interesting question, and one I don’t think anyone has a clean answer to: are these businesses structurally incapable of sustaining SaaS valuations, or have we simply not yet seen the right company execute the right model? The cousin industries — freight forwarding platforms like Flexport, digital freight brokerages like Convoy and Transfix — have all faced the same ceiling. Even the most tech-forward of them eventually gets repriced as a logistics business when the cycle turns.

The market is right to be skeptical. The economics of moving physical goods are fundamentally different from the economics of moving data. Gross margins in logistics are thin by nature. Customer acquisition is expensive. Churn is high because switching costs are low — a shipper can move from ShipStation to Shippo in an afternoon. And the business is brutally cyclical in a way that pure software never is. Until someone builds a shipping aggregator with 80%+ gross margins, 120%+ net revenue retention, and a defensible moat that doesn’t evaporate in a shipping price war, the market will keep applying a logistics discount.

So What Does This Mean for Thoma Bravo’s Bet?

Thoma Bravo is smart enough to know all of this. The question is whether they’ve found a way around it.

The thesis behind the Auctane/WWEX merger seems to be that combining the software layer with the physical freight, warehouse, and parcel layer creates something that is genuinely more defensible than either business alone. A shipper who uses ShipStation for their e-commerce labels and then routes their freight through Worldwide Express becomes stickier than a shipper who uses ShipStation alone. The data flywheel — knowing both the software preferences and the freight patterns of a customer — could theoretically create the kind of lock-in that justifies a higher valuation.

Whether that plays out in practice is a different question. The history of logistics mergers is full of deals that made perfect sense on a whiteboard and fell apart in execution. Remember Sendle in Australia — a promising company, a well-intentioned merger, and then a collapse that left thousands of customers scrambling. The $5 billion debt load sitting on top of this new entity is not forgiving. It demands results, and it demands them quickly.

For the thousands of small and medium-sized e-commerce businesses that rely on these platforms, the consolidation is a double-edged sword. In the short term, nothing may change. But in the long term, fewer choices, less competition, and almost certainly higher prices tend to follow when one company owns ShipStation, Stamps.com, ShippingEasy, and Metapack all at once.

This is the new reality of logistics tech. A world being reshaped not by operators in warehouses, but by financiers in boardrooms. And while it may be a brilliant playbook for generating returns, the final cost to the industry’s innovation and competitiveness has yet to be tallied.

If you’re looking for a guest speaker, analyst, or consultant for your project, company, or event, reach out.

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CeMAT South East Asia, the world’s leading trade fair for intralogistics, materials handling, and supply chain management, returns to Singapore EXPO from 12–14 May 2026 is organised by Hannover Fairs Australia, a subsidiary of the renowned Deutsche Messe. This event has established itself as a critical platform for the “warehouse of the future”.

I’m personally presenting at the Knowledge Theatre this year, but first, here is why this event is a non-negotiable for your 2026 calendar.

A Global Hub for Innovation

As a cornerstone of the international CeMAT portfolio—joining events in Australia, China, Italy, and Turkey—the Southeast Asia edition is a genuine convergence of industry leaders and practitioners. This year’s exhibition floor will feature over 65 companies, including industry giants like Dematic, Honeywell, Hyster-Yale, and Geek+.

Expect to see cutting-edge solutions in:

• Robotics and Warehouse Automation

• Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMRs) and conveyor systems

• Cold Chain Developments

• Digital Systems for operational performance

This year, CeMAT SEA is co-located with CargoNOW Singapore, a dedicated platform for the cargo, freight, and supply chain sectors. This partnership provides an expanded environment to evaluate end-to-end solutions, from the warehouse floor to global freight.

The Knowledge Theatre: Insights for the Next Era

The Knowledge Theatre serves as the event’s thought-leadership hub. Free for all attendees, it will host over 20 sessions featuring distinguished speakers exploring how AI and digital systems enhance resilience.

Key Themes Include:

• The AI Revolution in Logistics: Moving beyond theory into practical application.

• Scalable Automation for SMEs: Making high-tech accessible for smaller operations.

• Future-Ready Intralogistics: Building for long-term efficiency.

• Sustainable and Secure Supply Chains: Addressing global modern challenges.

Skills, Networking, and Recognition

Beyond the tech, CeMAT SEA is about the people who move the world:

• Southeast Asia Forklift Championship: A dynamic competition where drivers are tested on precision, speed, and safety in real-world warehouse conditions.

• Networking Function (May 12th): A relaxed evening on the show floor to exchange ideas and build relationships.

• LogiSYM Awards Gala (May 13th): A signature celebration of the co-located LogiSYM Asia Pacific 2026 conference, recognizing standout contributions to the industry.

Why I’m There

I’m honored to be presenting at the Knowledge Theatre this year. I’ll be sharing insights on ecommerce logistics and cross-border supply chain—topics that are rapidly reshaping how we think about regional fulfillment. Stay tuned for more details on my specific session time.

The Logistics at a Glance

As the supply chain landscape evolves at a rapid pace, CeMAT SEA 2026 offers a vital opportunity to stay ahead of the curve. Whether you are a veteran or an emerging talent, I look forward to seeing you there.

Register Now

J&T Express, a company with terrible LinkedIn presence, has become officially become the 2nd largest parcel carrier in the world announcing that it delivered 30.12B parcels in 2025, up 22.2%.

If you don’t know J&T listen up.

The carrier company founded in Indonesia (population 285 million) rapidly expanded into China (population 1.4 billion) and is now expanding into LATAM with strong results in Brazil.

It’s publicly listed so feel free to check them out yourself.

UPS isn’t fairing so well with recent losses in volumes, it will likely fall further from the list without a growth strategy.

United States Postal Service is focused on it’s business at home and it’s not clear if they will ever have an international play like PostNL, Australia Post, La Poste Groupe, bpost have done with their companies Spring GDS - Global, APG eCommerce Solutions, Asendia, Landmark Global.

The trend is obvious. Chinese carriers dominate thanks to the size of the Chinese ecommerce market, but the other trend I see is that Chinese companies are rapidly expanding into markets outside of China and staking a claim in ground delivery all around the world - something that the American companies never did successfully.

Amazon Logistics bucks that trend and it is rapidly growing especially via Amazon Shipping spinning off as a standalone carrier service.

Top Carriers by Revenue

While Chinese carriers dominate due to China’s position as the world’s #1 ecommerce market, and active expansion, the revenues from developing markets is nothing like it is in the developed West, and so if we compare volumes to revenue, we get a very different story.

In a complete role reversal DHL, UPS, FedEx, aka The Big 3, retain the top positions as expected. SF Express is worth mentioning here. It’s the biggest Chinese carrier and services the premium market in China. While far from the Big 3, given China and Asia’s growth rates, SF might be within striking distance of the Big 3 in 5 years.

Long term, FedEx’s acquisition of InPost puts it in a fantastic position to grow. DHL’s highly diversified business is it’s strength as well. UPS still lacks a big growth story - but maybe it doesn’t need to, or not does it care, because healthcare margins are fantastic — that is until Amazon decides it wants Amazon Pharmacy to get into Pharmaceutical logistics as well.

Question: When are we going to see an India carrier on this list? I’m waiting for a Delhivery (FedEx is an investor), or Blue Dart (DHL is an investor) to make it onto this list soon.

Warning: While this post is not about ecommerce logistics, it’s relevant to any marketers in the ecommerce logistics ecosystem - so forward it to your marketing teams!

I post a lot on LinkedIn, and so I often get asked if posting content on LinkedIn can help companies get sales if they’re in professional services, SAAS, or logistics?

Usually this is from a company that has posted for a few weeks on their company channel, or done a few posts on their personal channel, and didn’t see any immediately attributable conversion.

The problem with trying to attribute ROI on content normally stems from a misunderstanding of what content is and how it impacts the modern B2B buyer journey.

Good content informs, educates, or entertains - and in today’s highly distracted society, “entertainment is the only currency today that can purchase the attention of a too-distracted public.” - Roy H Williams

Good content helps to build an audience and “audiences are an are an asset with quantifiable value” - Robert Rose Chief Strategy Advisor of CMI.

The problem with most companies, however, is that they’re stuck on outdated last touch attribution concepts, and they don’t understand the modern buyer’s journey.

Most companies I see are stuck on some form of McKinsey’s Consumer Decision Journey which visualizes the customer as going on a predictable straight line happy path where every marketing touch point pushes them closer to becoming a customer.

This is totally wrong for today’s highly distracted and overly informed world, and it’s exacerbated by popular CRM designs which model their UI’s around the same straight line funnelling.

Google’s Messy Middle Framework more aptly descriptions the realty of today’s buyer - going through multiple loops of exploration and evaluation until they one day end up as a customer.

For B2B, however, where buyers are have real pain points to solve and goals to achieve, the journey is more like a slow crawl from 0 to CLOSE, with maybe was many as 50 touch points.

In today’s highly distracted and overly informed society, buyers are constantly getting micro signals which takes them through peaks and troughs of their pain points and goals.

Just think about yourself. You’ve bought products and services for your company.

Did you follow the McKinsey straight line?

1. I have a pain point!

2. Let me Google various providers

3. Next I’ll visit their websites

4. Fill out the forms

5. Have sales call with them all

6. Have a follow up calls with a short list

7. Ask for a quote from the final 1-2

8. Sign a contract

That’s the old world. It doesn’t exist anymore.

The modern B2B buyer’s experience is totally different from what last generation marketers tell you. In today’s highly distracted world of overwhelming information, the journey looks totally different.

1. Buyers start to feel some pain, not necessarily aware that they need to solve it, or they set some goals which they already have a plan for

2. Over months or years they see relevant content that informs, educates, or entertains them related to both their pain, and the possible solution(s) in the market, while in parallel

2. Their pain point or goals continue to grow until they hit a point where they are ready to pull the trigger

3. At this point they’ve already decided who they’re probably going to work with - the top 1-2 choices were already won over the months and years of seeing micro bits of content around their pain and the possibility solution, potentially as many as 50 touch points with a company

This is what I call, the Modern B2B Buyer Journey.

Two of the biggest excuses I usually hear at this point:

1. We can’t measure multi-touch attribution.

2. So instead we measure just the last-touch which is still better than measuring nothing at all.

While LinkedIn doesn’t show you all of the people who make up your impressions, LinkedIn does show you:

1. Who LIKED and commented on your posts - are you measuring them?

2. Who VIEWED your profile and your company’s profile - are you measuring them?

Measuring last-touch attribution is dangerous because once you understand the modern B2B buyer journey, last-touch attribution will lead you the WRONG conclusion.

There’s a reason that events and dinners have the highest ROI: because you were able to measure them.

If measuring multi-touch attribution is truly a challenge, an alternative quantifiable goal might be something like “We intend to achieve a 20% increase of in-ICP visitors to our personal pages and company pages this quarter.”

I guarantee you that the more content you post that informs, educates, or entertains, the more pipeline you will see.

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Geopost, a parcel delivery conglomerate that owns massive carrier brands like DPD, Asendia, La Poste, etc. has launched Singular, a directory for webshops of their customers in Europe.

According to Geopost it is “a digital platform designed to (1) offer consumers a new shopping experience while (2) unlocking new business opportunities for SMEs. (3) Singular provides consumers with access to unique and authentic products from selected local brands.”

The way it does this is by offering a “virtual storefront” experience which it promotes to “through Geopost’s social medias, websites and local delivery management apps, including myDPD, myBRT, miSEUR.”

The Marketplace-Directory Evolution

In the early days of the internet bubble, the first marketplaces were born and directly fought each other for dominance. Today many like Amazon and eBay thrive, while many are gone. By the 2010’s waves of internet companies that had obtained some kind of scale have tried to create marketplaces and directories on the premise that “We know a lot of merchants.”

Strategy wise this is a terrible idea. Almost all B2B vendors of any scale have a lot of customers. Knowing a lot of them provides almost no competitive advantage to build a successful directory or marketplace.

I cannot tell you how many times I have been approached be part of a new marketplace or directory project from companies in payment/fintech, logistics, SAAS, manufacturing and supply chain, and once even a packaging company!

Many have tried, all have died.

Why did they fail?

The marketplace business model has been covered and written about by people a lot smarter than me. I recommend reading “The Cold Start Problem” by Andreessen Horowitz’s Andrew Chen. However let’s just say that the critical success factors for building a marketplace-directory business includes

1. Managing Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC)

2. Increasing Average Over Value (AOV), Lifetime Value (LTV)

3. Reducing Churn (the inverse of which is improving retention)

It was often believed that acquiring merchants was the hardest part of running a marketplace, but it was not. Marketplaces would often say “If only I could get Nike’s on my marketplace, then users would buy from us!” But it turns out that even if you have Nike’s on your marketplace, if you are not driving significant traffic to your site, nobody will know about it.

And even if you bought enough traffic to get that visitor, convincing them to migrate from Amazon to your marketplace was hard. If you did get the first sale, hopefully not through incentives, getting them to come back as equally challenging.

Again learned 2 important things:

1. Acquiring customers is very expensive

2. Retaining them and growing AOV and LTV is very hard

There is a better strategy

Instead of creating the marketplace first, Geopost should create a consumer super tracking app, so that it can own a direct relationship with consumers. This would create:

1. High frequency recurring touch points (checking app daily for ecom deliveries)

2. Significant data on consumers (what they buy, where they buy)

These touch points become ad inventory which the Geopost could then use to serve personalized merchant ads to consumers and recommend specific purchases.

This solves the high CAC problem of obtaining eyeballs through organic tracking usage as the traffic and user acquisition tool.

User churn on a carrier’s native tracking app like Geopost or DPD would be very low, making user numbers even more attractive.

While some data science work would be needed, once they figure it out, serving personalized product recommendations to customers based on data can be very powerful.

Carrier tracking apps are not new. Carriers already have their own carrier tracking apps, but of them are going the route of Super App.

Geoposts’ strategy is not bad at all, it just needs a little fine tuning.

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Who Attends?

Attendees are heads of supply chain, logistics, and ecommerce from vetted brands and retailers that are buyers of logistics services. Attendees are provided with free access to the entire conference, 1 night’s free accommodation and travel subsidies to attend. Exhibitors ultimately are paying for this, and the benefit is Deliver’s unique format that ensures exhibitors have a full slate of 1:1 meetings with quality companies before they event arrive.

Hilton Dubai Al Habtoor City

The conference venue and hotel was the Hilton Dubai Al Habtoor City, a 5-star hotel, which felt like a luxurious upgrade. Deliver wanted to make a good first year impression, and it did.

Upon arrival you’re immediately aware of the multiple restaurants, bars, pools, and even a world class Cirque du Soleil style show called La Perle at the hotel - talk about a huge hotel!

Conference Floor

Middle East had the smallest conference floor among Deliver events, which has the benefit of creating a crozier and more intimate atmosphere. Deliver Americas and Europe give off the big conference show vibe with thousands of people coming and going - most of whom you will never know - but the Dubai had a homely feeling to it, probably because of the nice carpet and comfortable lighting.

Less exhibitors mean more time listening to the content series and also more time networking.

DP World was the main sponsor of the event as their both was lively. DP World’s stand always seems similar at each Deliver, and I realized that I had seem a similar style booth when I was last in Dubai for the UPU Postal Congress. Is this just a popular modern Middle Eastern style booth?

I was surprised to find a significant number of Dubai based ecommerce logistics companies missing. I would have expected Aramex to be there given they exhibit at other Delivers and local postal group 7X was not there either. Perhaps they were waiting to see how things would turn on this year?

The People

One of Deliver’s USP’s is quality attendees and Middle East did not disappoint. Tom Meek of Taxually told us that “All the brands we’ve spoken to are $100M+” and Blue Yonder’s Justine Lacombe indicated that exhibiting was “was a no brainer. The attendees are HIGH quality.” Not a single exhibitor we spoke to was disappointed and that’s a great start for a conference.

Food Reveal

This year’s Deliver had an unexpected twist - meat! Yes after consistently attending Deliver Events for 3 years, I had come to expect vegetarian, so imagine my surprise when I saw this great big tray of chicken!

Besides lunch, breakfasts, brunch snacks, and afternoon snacks were widely abundant.

My primary complaint for big conference events have always been the hotel canteen style food. I’d love to see logistics conferences learn from events like SXSW and hit us local cuisine and food to tasty that attendees would line up for it. If I’m only in Dubai for 2 days, it would be nice to try local food.

Fortunately there was tea and coffee shop across the street and I was able to get my fill of Karak Chai, the local milk tea, for the day.

Rooftop Food, Drinks, and Music

Deliver Middle East’s Day 1 after party was at the rooftop, full of food (slightly more localized yay), full of drinks, and had a DJ. It was great to finally go outside for a little bit and watch as half the attendees froze their asses off in the Dubai winter - and I’m not being sarcastic it was really cold!

The fun is always my favourite part and where I think a lot of the real business gets done. Not because of the alcohol, but because it’s easier to get to know people when you’re relaxed and no longer on business speed dating mode.

The Market

I normally don’t blog about a hotel breakfast, but one of the biggest selling points of staying at the Hilton is The Market. I know several attendees and exhibitors that intentionally avoided more after-partying so that they could enjoy the hotel, sleep early and crush the hotel breakfast.

Final Verdict

If you’re a retailer, you should check out what’s happening in the GCC and Deliver Middle East is a great platform. A well organized event with good content, 1:1 meetings, and a comfortable luxury hotel during Dubai’s winter time is a great combination.

If you’re an exhibitor, this year’s exhibitors had great things to say. If you were on the fence before, consider trying it next year - but only if you have a Middle East angle.

Next Up: Deliver Asia, Singapore

To experience Deliver, consider attending Deliver Asia in Singapore March 4-5. I’ll be there and as usual taking meetings in and out of the venue. Suntec City has a few great spots for Teh Tarik, and if you’re not a regularly we’ll also get a Kaya Toast with our milk tea

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